#YoSoy132 and the election campaign

The massive student movement #YoSoy132 and its inspirational group #MasQue131 at Iberoamericana  are celebrating their success at organizing a third presidential debate in the Digna Ochoa Auditorium of the National Human Rights Commission without the help of IFE or the duopoly media powers Televisa and TV Azteca. They seem to be convinced that they are influencing the outcome of the presidential election scheduled for July 1, and for them last night's debate on radio and internet is just another indication that they can affect the outcome. ( http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/06/20/politica/002n1pol  and http://www.riodoce.com.mx/content/view/14064/1/)

In one sense they are right, the debate was widely monitored, and it gave the #YoSoy132 movement another major degree of legitimacy and influence on top of its three previous successes — the embarrassment of Enrique Peña Nieto at Iberoamericana University, the massive 100,000 person march in Mexico City on June 10th, and its success in forcing both Televisa and TV Azteca to broadcast the second official IFE debate on the evening of June 10th.

God bless #YoSoy132, but it may not be happening soon enough to affect the final outcome on  July 1! The 3rd student debate was more informative than either of the first two debates organized by IFE, but the fact is that only those who were committed to finding it on-line actually listened to it and paid attention, and most of those listeners had already decided how they would vote — anyone other than PRI. Even the PRI recognized that this debate would not help them and could only harm them in some areas: Enrique Peña Nieto didn't even appear — he was represented by an empty chair. At the end of the question period, the student moderator handed each of the 3 other candidates a folder containing questions that had come in throughout the evening and he put a stack of questions on the empty seat that had been reserved for Enrique Peña Nieto.

During the debate, Twitter was buzzing with comments and observations directing people to the most stable internet video, or buzzing with jokes and one-liners about why Enrique Peña Nieto wasn't there. Many of tweets suggested that he was hiding in the bathroom, or that he didn't come because there was no bathroom in the studio for him to hide (as he had done at Iberoamericana University in early May)

The fact is, the movement is still very much a central Mexico and it is an elite movement peopled by a generation that communicates through social media. And although Mexico has moved with a vengeance into the e-world, its users are not representative of the large swaths of this country of more than 110 million people.

There have been #YoSoy132 protests and rallies in other parts of Mexico, and there are many students and young people who have self-nominated themselves as members of #YoSoy132. The students have also established a website and twitter account to disseminate information about how to ensure that the election results are honest and clean. In other parts of Mexico, there are also many students and young people now writing letters of protest to IFE in strong voices demanding that the electoral oversight body make sure that the vote is fair and just. One of the most popular letters circulating is asking IFE to change the ballot because it could lead to confusion and spoiled ballots for Andrés Manuel López Obrador (his name will appear in 3 separate places because of his endorsement by 3 official parties). But those protests and organizational efforts outside of the capital region are unlikely to change the mind of enough people before July 1.

There have been a few polls this week that continue to show that the PRI and Enrique Peña Nieto have a large lead in preferential polls (above 40% of decided voters). Reforma, which is the most credible newspaper in Mexico, published a poll yesterday that indicated that Enrique Peña Nieto had the support of 42% (up from 38%) and that Andrés Manuel López Obrador had slipped to 30% from the previous poll's 34%. But what is most telling about this poll by Reforma is the pattern in the regional breakdowns. The following diagram indicates that the Progressive movement led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (with the support of 3 parties) is clearly in the lead in Central Mexico (Mexico City, D.F.) and that he is running a close second in the south. But the PRI is overwhelmingly in the lead in the north (more than 50%) and is followed by Josefina Vázquez Mota in second place. PAN and Vázquez Mota are also running in a strong second in PAN's traditional support states to the west of Mexico City (e.g. Jalisco, Michoacan, Guerrero)

A screen image capture of Reforma June 19 results of voter intention.

#YoSoy132 may be on the move in Mexico City and in the Federal District, but this poll suggests that it has yet to make any major inroad beyond  central Mexico where 75 to 80% of the votes lie.

And sadly for #YoSoy132 and its enthusiastic supporters, those areas are unlikely to change before election day. They are PRI (or PAN) strongholds, and in some cases will be heavily influenced by narco money and the interests of the free-enterprise neo-liberals who have profited from maquiladoras and free trade with the USA. Furthermore, the "voto nullo" (vote for nobody) initiative promoted by many people (including Javier Sicilia) may have more influence in this zone that is most affected by the violence in Mexico.

There is a possibility — at this point remote — of a last minute switch and change of heart in the North and in the West of Mexico. One must always consider that the polling sample in the north may not be as representative as it is in Mexico City and DF, and also consider that there may be more people in the north who are not going to tip their hand before they enter the polling booth. Perhaps they will actually follow Andrés Manuel López Obrador's advice to "take their money and gifts" but go into the polls and vote for us.

As it stands now, July 1 is looking to be a cakewalk for PRI and the return to power of the dinosaurs of Atlacomulco and the duopoly media powers. Or, there could be an incredible last minute surprise and a massive turnout of undecided voters who are willing to give the progressive movement a victory. Perhaps the "cuchi cuchi" comments of Chepina (Josefina Vázquez Mota) in Mazatlán will make some people move away from PAN, or perhaps the increasing evidence of PRI corruption and involvement with cartels will finally sink in and convince others. If all of those things happen, the celebrations at the Zocalo and the Angel of Independence may make the Justin Bieber audience (June 11) look like a small gathering. If PRI wins, the #YoSoy132 movement may become just another one of the many protest movements in Mexico that has been beaten and stomped on by the forces of neo-liberalism and a global economy that puts profit before people.

The 2012 Presidential Election and Youth Protest — a turning point?

The first impression that many have when they travel to Mexico is a bewildering sense of chaos and disorder. But such an impression belies the reality that powerful forces and hidden powers have always controlled almost every aspect of Mexican life, and have successfully manipulated politics and events to serve their interests

Although many benefit from this oligarchic control, almost all have links to the powerful broadcast media outlets Televisa and TV Azteca and are linked to an elite group of friends known as the Atlamulco group. The fingers of Emilio Azcárraga Jean (Televisa) and Ricardo Salinas Pliego (TV Azteca) stir the pot and pull many of the strings that have led to the enrichment of many of many of their friends in that circle.

Both of these powerful media ignored the Mexican public and their civic and moral responsibility and in their decision to broadcast futbol semi-finals instead of broadcasting the first presidential debate of 2012, but that may be the least onerous act of political manipulation in support of their favourite son  and PRI presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto. Their money and influence have played an important part in promoting the popularity of their glamourous candidate whose second wife happens to be a former soap opera star. Their support and connections to Peña Nieto and to his political mentors Emilio Chuayffet Chemor are well known. Emilio Azcárraga Jean, former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari and all of the wealthiest members of the PRI elite were guests at his lavish wedding to the glamourous soap-opera star and daughter of Emilio Chuayfett Chemor.

Pictures from Enrique Peña Nieto's opulent wedding — Ex president Carlos Salinas de Gortari was the most senior PRI padrino at the event and signed the wedding documents as a witness.

Pubic opinion polls and news reports have consistently reported that Peña Nieto has a lead of at least 20 points, leaving challengers (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador - AMLO, and Josefina Vasquez Mota - La Chepina) trailing far behind and only ahead of Gabriel Quadri de la Torre who is running as a front for the powerful teacher union cacique Elba Esther Gordillo.  As most people know, public opinion polls are sometimes wrong — but a 20 point lead with 6 weeks to go is a substantial margin that is hard to explain away by fraud or manipulation. Nevertheless, there are many people here in Mexico who doubt the numbers and who firmly believe that Televisa in cooperation with the powerful forces of PRI and Atlamulco have successfully distorted the results to reinforce a perception that Peña Nieto has an insurmountable lead and is the people's choice. As someone with training in statistical analysis, I do find it difficult to believe that there could be such a gross manipulation of data — but my Mexican friends who also have an understanding of methodology and statistics assure me that the results are much closer than Televisa, TV Azteca and PRI would have us believe. They point to the large number of people who have refused to participate and even answer, and to the large number of undecided voters who did answer— representing more than 50% of the sample are not providing a choice. This creates a margin of error that is incredibly broad and leaves the interpretation in the unreliable zone.

But no matter what polls have indicated, Peña Nieto appeared to be sailing smoothly toward the presidency supported by legions of adoring female supporters yelling vacuous things such as come home with me please my beautiful man. Peña Nieto's scripted campaign has been a powerful juggernaut in spite of flubbing a softball question to identify 3 influential books at Latin America's biggest book fair in Guadalajara ( http://lat.ms/rTNMtG)  and his daughter's subsequent tweet complaining about "los proles" and their lack of respect for her father after the press made fun of his ignorance of books. The tweeter universe jumped all over her snobbish comments and generated a hashtag that went viral — #YoSoyProle. But, these two things had little impact on the campaign nor did they provide any momentum to turn polling numbers around. AMLO and La Chepina remained far behind and fighting with each other to avoid falling into 3rd place in the reported polls. The campaign to install Enrique Peña Nieto followed the script to a T, in much the same way that Televisa and TV Azteca generated soap-operas for the mindless masses.

The incident at Iberoamericana University

But something unexpected happened, and Enrique Peña Nietos momentum may have hit a major roadblock. It's too early to say that Enrique Peña Nieto and his team made a major mistake and that their weakness in substance and policy have been completely exposed. But it's clear that a game-changing event happened on May 11 when Enrique's Campaign advisors scheduled a rally at the Jesuit Private Iberoamericana University in the wealthy Santa Fe area of Mexico State — where both Peña Nieto and his father-in-law had been the governor and where Carlo Salinas de Gortari has his family estate.
The student rally appeared to be going well and according to script until the issue of Atenco protests and police response were raised in a question period. As governor, Enrique Peña Nieto had called in 700 Federal Police and 1,815 EdoMex State Police who broke up the event with violent force. (see the Atenco event at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ccf7pOOhvCY).
Peña Nieto defended police actions as a necessary reaction, and said that the State has a moral obligation to respond to violence with force. His response generated a audible groans and shouting protests, and demands  that Peña Nieto get out of here (("fuerase") . The noise and shouts became so loud that he did flee with a look of panic clearly etched on his face, and he was quickly surrounded by his advisors in the corridors outside of the auditorium — all of which was captured by video cameras and all showing that his trademark smile had become a worried grimace. (Photo downloaded from Proceso)

Finally, he was ushered off campus and to safety by his handlers. (see  http://bit.ly/Lys1nL).

Afterwards, PRI spin doctors suggested that this rally had been sabotaged and organized in advance by PRD activists and agitators who were not students at Iberoamericana. However the rally was open only to students and video evidence made it very clear that the only organized group on campus that day was a PRI rally team with pre-printed professional campaign posters. Eventually, 131 students from Iberoamericana came forward to indicate that they were students who had protested— and they presented their student ID's to prove it. They all claimed that nothing organized ahead of time and that what happened at the Iberoamericana rally was a spontaneous reaction to an answer that the students clearly did not believe nor accept.

A war of words escalated, and everything that the PRI spin doctors tried had an effect opposite to what they intended. The more they said, the angrier the reaction became, and studnet protests materialized across most of the country- albeit with more participants in some parts than in others. And student marchers  adopted a new slogan indicating their support— YoSo132 — i.e. they wanted to add their name as the 132 student who was opposed to Peña Nieto. The slogan served as another hashtag #MarchaYoSoy132 that went viral, and is part of a massive tweeter wave of comments reinforcing the view that Enrique Peña Prieto is a candidate of the elite and the powerful, and is no friend of the students nor any Mexican other than the wealthy elite.

The "tuits" also connected Peña Nieto and Televisa, and have led to protests in front of public monuments such as the much criticized estella de luz monument ( http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/05/24/politica/019n1pol ), in the symbolically important Plaza de Tres culturas in Tlatelolco, and ended up outside of Televisa offices and studios in Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey and in other parts of Mexico. The headlines in the Guadalajara version of La Jornada screamed in bold letters ""Somos jóvenes, sabemos lo que está pasando - We are young, we know what's going on". There is rapidly growing viral campaign in the tweeter-verse to shut off Televisa from home TV sets and boycott it (#ApagonTelevisa http://bit.ly/Kr0Ey1).

To an outsider, these protests against a candidate from the party in opposition seems like it should be inconsequential, but the fact is that the Iberoamericana events have escalated into major repercussions with the real potential to alter the fin what  happens in the final 6 weeks of the campaign. The rejection by the students of an elite and conservative university has left the PRI scrambling to change the message of Enrique Peña Nieto, and he recently proposed several intiiatives and promises to help youth find jobs. He has begun to emphasize that he will be  more transparent and open in dealing with students and with other Mexican citizens. But, he hasn't set foot on another campus, and editorial cartoons ridiculing his fear of students. (e.g.http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=308108).

PRI has apparently decided that its best response is to mobilize one supporting constituency it believes it can count on — women — and apparently have called for a march of 15,000 women to protest the bad treatment of their glamour boy by rowdy students at Iberoamericana and the agitators protesting in front of Televisa (Mujeres priistas marcharán en desagravio de “agresiones” a EPN ( http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=308874 )

But, many journalists and writers are suggesting that these protests are not frivolous and organized events and that they are a major turning point in the campaign — and perhaps even a sign that politics of Mexico may never be the same and that the time of manipulation by the oligarchy has ended. To borrow from the moral of a fairy tale — a child was the only one who pointed out that the emperor has no clothes. In the case of Mexico, the students not only exposed the fact that the PRI and Enrique Peña Nieto have no substance but they've also made it clear that they understand that Televisa and TV Azteca have been shamelessly promoting a naked emperor-to-be for their own self-interest.

José Gil Olmos has published a couple of brilliant analyses describing the potential impact and the change that the protests represent (http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=307732 , http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=308520) and Jesusa Cervantes has described the potential of this movement very succinctly in another Proceso article (http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=308537). Cervantes writes that the students have demonstrated that they are well informed and that they do know what they want. They know what the PRI and Peña Nieto stand for, and they have shown a capacity to demonstrate indignation in a powerful way — much more than middle-aged Mexicans working in secure jobs that they hope to keep until they retire. The students proclaim "Don't insult our intelligence — we know what you stand for and who is behind you". 
She adds that the student protests have forced Peña Nieto off his script and made him pay attention to issues outside of his controlled agenda — the young people and the manipulation of power. The student protests have forced the election team of the PRI to twist and turn to quickly throw out new manifestos promising to protect guarantees that are already in the constitution. The PRI and Peña Nieto are promising to do what every student knows is supposed to happen by law, and Enrique Peña Nieto and the PRI response have simply shown that they have never understood this".

"Los jóvenes demostraron que sí están informados, que sí saben lo que no quieren: al PRI y a Peña Nieto por lo que representa, no por su persona en sí. Mostraron que tienen capacidad de indignación más fuerte que cualquier cuarentón cómodamente instalado en su oficina de trabajo esperando su jubilación.

El reclamo es: “no insultes mi inteligencia; sabemos qué representas y a quién tienes detrás”.

El moviendo estudiantil ha obligado a Peña Nieto a voltear la mirada hacia los jóvenes, pero tanto él como su equipo ha sido tan torpes que los ha insultado aún más ofreciéndoles un “manifiesto” que no es otra cosa que los principios y derechos que están consagrados en la Constitución. Eso cualquier estudiante de derecho lo sabe, cualquier preparatoriano que lleve la materia lo entiende. Sólo la prepotencia y falta de entendimiento de Peña Nieto y su equipo no lo han digerido."

But, it remains to be seen how it will play out and it remains to be seen whether the youth of Mexico will vote in numbers that will make a difference. However, the message of the young people may have already spread to other parts of the population. Peña Nieto had planned to visit two cities in Sinaloa on a major campaign sweep through the state, but he cancelled his visit to Mazatlan and his rally in the north in Guasave was not well-attended and a large part of the audience walked out during his speech leaving the stadium with vast swatches of empty seats.

Posted from Culiacán, Sinaloa Mexico

Word of the day — El Edecán

Concise Oxford Spanish Dictionary © 2009 Oxford University Press:
edecán sustantivo masculino
1. ( Mil ) aide-de-camp
2. edecán sustantivo masculino y femenino (Méx) (acompañante) escort

Spanish, unlike English, is precise in assigning gender to all nouns. There are only a few exceptions where a noun ending in "a" is not feminine and it's usually a safe bet to assume that any noun ending in a consonant or an 'o' is masculine.

But, the presidential debate on Sunday night (May 6) turned the world upside down and gave a whole new and salacious meaning to "el edecán".

The candidate's debate for the presidential election was nearly upstaged by a former playboy model Júlia Orayen (Descember 2008) who sashayed across the screen wearing a low-cut white dress that left little to the imagination. She was distributing a ballot that would determine the order of questions and debates between the candidates, but her moves clearly had everyone watching thinking about double D. http://redpolitica.mx/ruta-electoral/quien-es-la-edecan-del-ife

The Mexican tweeter-verse went into overdribe and Monday's bloggers were all agog with their views about IFE and the debate. A tweet site was quickly established, and La Edecan Del IFE@LaEdecanDelIFE attracted more than 15,000 followers within short period of time. Links to her personal site were swamped with visitors trying to find out more about her. http://www.publimetro.com.mx/noticias/fotos-ella-es-julia-orayen-la-edecan-del-ife/mleg!OnIaBPMH8YEQ6/

And a wave of humour was unleashed in the aftermath of the appearance of Srta. Júlia Orayan. http://www.e-consulta.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=33255:la-edec%C3%A1n-del-ife-desata-humor-en-redes-tras-el-debate&Itemid=332, http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2012/05/08/index.php?section=cartones&id=0

There was considerable controversy before the debate about Televisa and TV Azteca's decision to broadcast a "liguilla" futbol playoff game on its main network and to relegate the first presidential debate to secondary channels across Mexico. But that controversy almost took second place to the one that emerged after la srta. Júlia strutted her stuff.

http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/f91d79fe958aaaaba01a70324e658d32
http://m.vanguardia.com.mx/niquadripudoresistirsealosencantosdelaedecandelife-1282319.html
http://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/noticia/737891.critican-a-edecan-del-ife-por-vestido.html
http://conexiontotal.mx/2012/05/08/edecan-del-ife-encueratriz-con-lios-judiciales/

The organizers of the debate at the Instituto Federal de Elecciones (IFE) went into damage control and issued several apologies. http://www.proceso.com.mx/?p=306718
http://mexico.cnn.com/nacional/2012/05/07/el-ife-se-disculpa-por-la-vestimenta-de-la-edecan-del-debate-presidencial?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+cnnmexico%2Fportada+(Noticias)

Mexican broadcasters have always been powerful political brokers and players, and they have shown a disdain for the intelligence of the Mexican public. Emilio "El Tigre" Azcarraga Milmo is famous for saying that television is for "los jodidos" and that his programming at Televisa would play to that level. Perhaps IFE has simply borrowed that strategy.