Cultures of Peace: Canada, Mexico and the United States

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Global Peace Index: A trilateral comparison

James Creechan

June 9, 2009

The Vision of Humanity website (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/index.php) publishes an annual Global Peace Index (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/home.php) based on 23 indicators of the “presence or absence of peace”. The 2009 version compared 140 countries.The methodology and data sources are described at (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/about-gpi/methodology.php), and the indicators are coded as ordinal data (“banded”) for qualitative measures, and collapsed into a ten-point scale for quantitative measures. For ordinal data, a lower number indicates a more peaceful state, and quantitative measures most commonly use the high end (maximum of 10) to indicate a more peaceful state. The indicators are constructed from both internal and external measures of peace. The reader should consult the methodology link (above) for conceptual descriptions of each indicator and the details about comparative coding.

The site provides several options for viewing the indicators and results. For instance, an international ranking of overall cumulative measures indicates that New Zealand ranks as the most peaceful society (index score of 1.2) and Iraq is the least peaceful (index score of 3.341). Among the NAFTA amigos, Canada ranks as the 8th most peaceful society (cumulative index of 1.311), the United States as the 83rd (cumulative index of 2.015) and Mexico occupies 108th place (index of 2.209). The complete rankings for all 140 countries are available at the link http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/results/rankings.php.

The Vision of Humanity site also allows the user to construct specific comparisons (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/results/comparison.php), and this feature was used create a comparative description of Canada, Mexico and the United States. The indicators are presented in the table below. Mexico appears to differ significantly (no t-test was computed) on several measures, and the table highlights those areas of difference by using an italicized red font and a bold red font for the Mexican value. The United States also differs significantly from both Mexico and Canada on a couple of indicators — the percentage of population in jails/prisons and the export of weapons.The focus of this brief analysis is on Mexico — where and how does it differ from its Canadian and United States partners.

Comparison: Canada(CA) Mexico(MX) United States of America(USA)
	CA	MEX	USA
Overall Peace Index Rank	8	108	83
Score	1.311	2.209	2.015

Indicator information
# external & internal conflicts fought: 2002-2007	1.5	1	1.5
Estimated # deaths from organised conflict (external)	2	1	3
# of deaths from organised conflict (internal)	1	1	1
Level of organised conflict (internal)	1	2	1
Relations with neighbour countries	1	2	2
Perceptions of criminality in society	2	3.5	2
# displaced people as % of population	1	1	1
Political instability	1	2.75	1.25
Respect for human rights	1.5	3	3
Potential for terriorist acts	2	3	3
# homicides per 100,000	1	4	2
Level of violent crime	1	5	2
Likelihood of violent demonstrations	1	3.5	2
# jailed population per 100000	1.5	2	5
# internal security officers & police 100000	1	2	2
Military expenditure as % of GDP	1	1	2
#f armed services personnel per 100000	1	1	1
Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as supplier (exports) per 100000	1.5	1	2.5
Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as recipient (Imports) per 100000	1	1	1
Funding for UN peacekeeping missions (% assessed contribution)	1	1	1
Aggregate number of heavy weapons per 100000	1	1	1
Ease of access to weapons of minor destruction	2	4	3
Military capability/sophistication	3	3	5

The first part of the table (above) indicates some significant differences that are obvious to the observer — but the indicators provide a way of quantifying and symbolically focusing on the specifics. The level of violence in Mexico is significantly higher, its citizens perceive it to be higher, and there is a higher potential for violent protest. It’s not uncommon for Mexican politicians, including Mexican attorney general Eduardo Medina Mora Icaza, to claim that Mexico experiences no more violence than that typically found in US large cities, but this international ranking indicates that this is a specious claim.

The government of Felipe Calderón Hinojosa has argued that Mexico is really no more violent than the USA because approximately 75% of all of the homicidios dolosos (homicide with deliberate intent) have occurred in only 3 of the 32 Mexican States. And furthermore, it is easy to gain access to what is categorized as weapons of minor destruction using the definitions applied in this report.

Driver information
democracy and transparency	CA	MX	USA
Electoral process	9.17	7.92	8.75
Functioning of government	9.64	7.14	7.86
Political participation	7.78	5	7.22
Political culture	8.75	5	8.75
Civil liberties	10	8.82	8.53
Corruption perceptions (CPI score: 10 = highly clean 0 = highly corrupt)	8.7	3.6	7.3
Women in parliament (% total # of representatives in lower house)	22.1	23.2	17
Political Democracy Index	9.07	6.78	8.22
Gender Inequality	0.72	0.64	0.7

Midterm elections are scheduled for early July, and there have been a great deal of concern that the voter participation rate will be pathetically low because of indifference, mistrust, and perceptions of political corruption. The moral authority of Federal and State Electoral Institutes have been severely damaged by the 2006 Presidential Vote, by the inability of Congress and Senate to reign in the power of Televisa and other broadcasters, and by many revelations of corruption and self-serving decisions by politicians. There is also growing evidence and awareness of the links between narcotraffic and politics, and President Felipe Calderon’s move to arrest mayors and government officials in his native State of Michoacan may have the result of actually suppressing voter participation in the July elections. There is a growing movement calling for “blank ballots” and boycotting of the elections because of a cynical perception that nothing will change. The data in the above section certainly seem to suggest that those people who are concerned about the current health of Mexican democracy are right.

international openness	CA	MX	US
Freedom of the press	3.3	46.1	8

Last week’s execution of Elisio Barrón Hernández (http://www.internationalpen.org.uk/go/news/mexico-second-journalist-murdered-in-durango-state) is another example case that will contribute to Mexico’s reputation as one of the most dangerous places in the world to be a working journalist. PEN international said the following:

“Mexico is one of the most dangerous countries inthe world to work as a journalist. From 2004 to 2009, 22 writers - 21 print journalists and one author - have been murdered, while four more print journalists have disappeared. Few if any of these crimes have been properly investigated or punished. International PEN believes that it is likely thatthese journalists were targeted in retaliation for their critical reporting, particularly on drug trafficking. While organised crime groups are responsible for many attacks, state agents, especially government officials and the police, are reportedly the main perpetrators of violence against journalists, and complicit in its continuance.”

International openness	CA	MX	US
Exports+Imports % of GDP	58.2	55.2	23.9
Foreign Direct Investment (flow) % GDP	3.10%	1.70%	1.90%
Number of visitors as % of domestic pop	56%	19.90%	17.10%
Net Migration (% of total population)	3.20%	-3.7	2.20%

The downturn in the American economy may see these numbers change next year, but there will also be other implications for Mexico should this happen. Remittances from the United States to Mexico provide the largest source of legal revenue for the Mexican economy.

demographics	CA	MX	US
15-34 yr old males as % of total pop	13.80%	16.2	14.40%
Gender ratio of pop: women/men	0.98	0.95	0.97

This number may not appear to be a significant difference, but it is huge. Furthermore, the upper range (34) is a little misleading. The number of males under 30 is even greater. Obviously, this is the age group that is most likely to be unemployed and recruited into narcotrafficking and other criminal misadventures.

In the following section, the most significant difference is in the “retention” figure from elementary school to secondary school. The comments about age also apply here.

Regional & int'l framework/conditions	CA	MX	US
Extent of regional integration	2	2	2

education	CA	MX	US
Current education spending (% GDP)	4.90%	5.50%	5.30%
Primary school enrolment ratio (% Net)	99%	97.70%	91.60%
Secondary school enrolment ratio (% Net)	97.60%	68.60%	88.40%
Higher education enrolment (% Gross)	62.40%	25.30%	82.20%
Mean yrs schooling	16.9	13.4	15.7
Adult literacy rate (% of pop over 15)	99%	92.40%	99%

culture	CA	MX	US
Hostility to foreigners/private property	0	1	1
Importance of religion in national life	2	3	3
Willingness to fight	1	2	2

Material well-being	CA	MX	US
Nominal GDP (US$PPP bn)	1284.415	1547.647	14264.6
Nominal GDP (US$bn)	1501.7914	1088.1279	14264.6
GDP per capita	45220	9900	46950
Gini-coefficient	32.6	46.1	40.8
Unemployment %	6.20%	4%	5.80%
Life expectancy	80.4	74.5	77.8
Infant mortality per 1000 live births	4.9	29.1	6.5
Source: Global Peace Index, Visions of Humanity (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/index.php)